Journals Information
Universal Journal of Applied Mathematics Vol. 11(2), pp. 17 - 27
DOI: 10.13189/ujam.2023.110201
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Modeling Mortality Rates for Botswana
Kago Kebotsamang *, Thabiso Malomo , Oarabile Lekhane
Department of Statistics, University of Botswana, Botswana
ABSTRACT
Botswana has not updated its life tables since 2011. This implies that the current life tables may not reflect the current mortality trends, which could have a negative impact on end users such as insurance and pension fund companies. This study aims to estimate mortality rates and construct new life tables for Botswana. We used the Heligman-Pollard and Lee-Carter models to estimate mortality rates in Botswana for the years 2016-2019. The Heligman-Pollard model parameters were estimated through a Bayesian melding approach with incremental mixture importance sampling. The Lee-Carter model was estimated using a maximum likelihood approach and residual bootstrapping to construct confidence intervals of the estimated mortality rates. The Lee-Carter model was found to produce similar results to the Heligman-Pollard model. The results of the two models estimated life expectancy for males and females in Botswana to be about 68 and 74 years, respectively. The results of this study can be used to update the life tables for Botswana and improve the accuracy of mortality estimates for end users such as insurance and pension fund companies.
KEYWORDS
Heligman-Pollard, Lee-Carter, Mortalily Rates, Life Tables, Botswana
Cite This Paper in IEEE or APA Citation Styles
(a). IEEE Format:
[1] Kago Kebotsamang , Thabiso Malomo , Oarabile Lekhane , "Modeling Mortality Rates for Botswana," Universal Journal of Applied Mathematics, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 17 - 27, 2023. DOI: 10.13189/ujam.2023.110201.
(b). APA Format:
Kago Kebotsamang , Thabiso Malomo , Oarabile Lekhane (2023). Modeling Mortality Rates for Botswana. Universal Journal of Applied Mathematics, 11(2), 17 - 27. DOI: 10.13189/ujam.2023.110201.